This report by CNET quotes a source that says Android sales will outstrip iPhone by 2012.
Ridiculous!!!
Why? Because I am invested in iPhone development? Because I don’t like Android? No. Because anyone who thinks they can predict this market 3 years into the future is on drugs. Or should be.
The iPhone did not exist 3 years ago in 2006. Android is less than a year old. Think back 3 years. Did these researchers predict that Apple would come up with the iPhone and that it would take the world by storm and a year and a half later Google would start being a phone company? NO! But I bet they were making bold predictions about Nokia and Motorola or whatever device manufacturers were hot back then.
I’m not saying Android WON’T win over iPhone. I don’t think it will, but I’m not placing any bets. I think that if something does outstrip iPhone sales, it is probably more likely that it’s something that doesn’t even exist yet. Things are moving WAY too quickly to make predictions on individual product lines.
OK, here’s my prediction. I predict that in 2012, we’ll all be all excited about something that nobody predicted back in 2009. And if someone mentions the battle between iPhone and Android, we’ll all have a good nostalgic laugh.